Asymmetric Effects of Remittances on Inflation in Uzbekistan: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Mualliflar

  • Diyorbek Kenjayev Tashkent University of Information Technologies (3rd-year student, Management) Muallif

Kalit so‘zlar:

remittances, inflation, NARDL, asymmetric effects, Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Abstrak

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of remittances on consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan using monthly data spanning 2016M01–2025M12 (120 observations). Employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), we decompose remittance changes into positive and negative partial sums to capture potential asymmetries. The NARDL bounds F-statistic of 5.991 decisively rejects the null of no cointegration at the 1% level — markedly outperforming the linear ARDL (F = 3.284). Our results reveal significant asymmetry: negative remittance shocks significantly raise consumer prices (coefficient = 0.053, p = 0.032), while positive shocks exert no statistically significant inflationary effect (p = 0.537). The error correction coefficient of −0.332 (p < 0.001) confirms rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that remittances function as an asymmetric economic stabilizer: abundant inflows dampen inflationary pressure, whereas declining inflows fuel price instability. Policy implications for the Central Bank of Uzbekistan are discussed. JEL Classification: E31, F24, O53

NINE muqovasi

Yuklab olishlar

Nashr qilingan

2026-11-02

Nashr

Jild 3 Nomeri 11 (2026): 2026-yil, Noyabr

Bo'lim

Articles

Litsenziya

Mualliflik huquqi (c) 2026 The author(s)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Asymmetric Effects of Remittances on Inflation in Uzbekistan: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach. (2026). New Innovations in National Education, 3(11). https://reandpub.uz/nine/article/view/1344

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